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Name: The Chopping Block
Location: Piscataway, NJ
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Read My Lips, Its the Intelligence Stupid

Anyone reading my blog by now realizes how strongly I feel that intelligence gathering procedures are the most important part of any battle or war. As poor as our American intelligence has been in the present war, poor intelligence is not new to warfare in North America.

In 1758, British and Colonial provincials made a major error in their first assault upon Fort Carillon (later renamed Ticonderoga by the British), a French held fort on the waterway entrance from New York to Canada.  Although the British forces greatly outnumbered the French forces 16,000 to 4,000, the French forces won the battle that day.  General Sun Tzu would have loved the battle because one of the major reasons that the British lost was one of Sun Tzu’s favorite principals. 

Sun Tzu, if you do not already know, was a Chinese general that lived 2,500 years ago and wrote the manual—“The Art of War”—a manual read around the world by military organizations.  In it Sun Tzu outlines several principals that are generally recognized as necessary to win a war.  One of those states, “All warfare is based upon deception”. 

If only the British commander, General James Abercrombie, had read the manual before the battle, he might have been more successful.  But apparently he had never heard of Sun Tzu.  However, the French commander, Louis-Joseph de Montcalm, whether he had read Sun Tzu or not, applied the principal of deception with wondrous results.

Knowing the British would send scouts (spies) to watch the fort preparations, Montcalm skillfully hid the main fortifications from view and created what looked like to the British scouts to be a flimsy half hearted weak fortress. With the British scouts looking down on the busy French forces, Montcalm ordered all his men to look busy building the weak fortress.

The scouts brought the word back that the fortress was weak and vulnerable. Abercrombie sent more spies to check it out and they reported back with the same information. Acting on this information, and unaware that there was not only a strong impenetrable fortress hidden in the woods, but also a horrible array of fallen timbers with sharpened points hidden in front of the deception, Abercrombie ordered the assault. 

Historians note that Abercrombie lost the battle because he lost control of his forces and the attack was badly managed. However, the real reason he lost was his poor intelligence reports.

Let’s hope that American military experts have heard of Sun Tzu and are fully aware that the enemy has heard of him also.

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Mark Twain Was Right

"It is wiser to find out than to suppose."  The old man was right, and he wasn't even talking about our commander in chief and the military commanders.  Let me take you back 60 odd plus years ago for a moment.
 
In December of 1944 the Allies had reached the German border in their push to clear Europe of Hitler. All along the Siegfried line, American troops dug in and prepared for the final assault on German troops. The only problem was that there was absolutely no reliable intelligence about what was going on inside the German Army. All intelligence sources had dried up. No more French underground, no Belgium sympathizers, no more listening in on radio conversations.  Once inside their own borders, the Germans used secure telephone lines rather than their radios. The allies were blind and deaf.

But stupidly, (knowing they had no intelligence), the intelligence gurus sent their intelligence reports up to the top military commanders, and even more stupidly, (knowing there was no intelligence), the top military commanders read the intelligence reports and believed them. 

On Dec 16, 1944, 21st Army Group’s intelligence summary read—“The enemy … cannot stage major offensive operations.” The only problem was that on that very day, Germany was attacking the American lines at the Ardennes forest with the biggest, strongest offensive push they had ever used against the American forces. In what was to become known as the Battle of the Bulge, the Americans were caught completely off guard and suffered tremendous losses as the Germans pushed their way westward towards the Atlantic port of Antwerp.

Even during the battle itself, the top commanders refused to believe the reports coming from the field because they ran counter to the intelligence reports that were in their hands. Shortly before dawn on Dec 16, Lt Bouck, commander of the intelligence and reconnaissance platoon, upon seeing the tanks, artillery and infantry columns marching towards his position, radioed headquarters with the information. The officer in the rear refused to believe him and did not supply the artillery bombardment that Bouck asked for. He did not believe him because his intelligence report stated that the Germans could not mount an offensive attack.
 
Now jump forward 64 years to the report out of Senator John Rockefeller's Select Committee on Intelligence and read where it says that our nations intelligence agencies generally substantiated that the following were true:
 
1.  Iraq had a nuclear weapons program
2.  Iraq had the capability to produce biological weapons
3.  Iraq had chemical weapons
4.  Iraq had weapons of mass destruction
5.  Iraq had delivery systems such as ballistic missles
6.  Iraq had unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction
7.  Iraq supported terrorits groups other than al Qaeda
8.  Iraq provided safe haven for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
9.  Iraq was in contact with al Qaeda
 
As we now know, or substantially believe, none of the above turned out to be true.  Yet it is not a case of our commander in chief lying to us.  It is a case of our national intelligence agencies failing to provide the information we neede to make the correct decisions.  Was our commander in chief absolved?  Of course not.  His problem is that he wanted so much to believe it, he did not question it when it came in.  If Bush had read any Mark Twain while he was at Yale, he might have known that is wiser to find out rather to suppose.  Especially when committing our troops to war.
 
All of this really worries me.  In a day and age when we should be able to know everything about everyone, including everything our enemies are doing, it appears that it is just the opposit.  We know nothing.  And knowing nothing leads to supposing and assuming, and our record on that is dismal.
 
Just wait till the war with China comes over Taiwan.  Once they technologically destroy our whole computerized operation, we will be just like the soldiers at Ardennes in 1944...blind and deaf.  But add one more trait to that...dumb.
 
God Save Us.
 
 
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